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THREATSCOPE... · 30-day escalation risk
Next: 30:00
8.8
Middle East
CRITICAL
7.2
Russia / Ukraine
SEVERE
2.2
China / Taiwan
STABLE
2.3
Korean Peninsula
STABLE
REGIONS — ranked by 30-day escalation risk
8.8
Middle East
Iran · Israel · Yemen · Hezbollah
CRITICAL
↑ Rising
7.2
Russia / Ukraine
Eastern Front · Black Sea · NATO
SEVERE
→ Stable
2.3
Korean Peninsula
DPRK · DMZ · Nuclear Posture
STABLE
→ Stable
2.2
China / Taiwan
Taiwan Strait · South China Sea
STABLE
→ Stable
What does the score measure?
The score (1–10) measures the probability of significant escalation beyond the current state within 30 days. It doesn't measure how bad things are — it measures how likely they are to get worse.
An active war with peace talks may score lower than a standoff where a first strike is imminent — the war is priced in, while the standoff is about to get worse.
1–3
STABLE
Very unlikely
3–5
ELEVATED
Low risk
5–7
HIGH
Moderate
7–9
SEVERE
Likely in 30d
9–10
CRITICAL
Near certain
Ensemble model: Prediction Markets 35% · GDELT Intensity 20% · Base Rates 15% · Structural Risk 30% · Refreshes every 30 min