Global Stress Index/ About

About the Global Stress Index

"Markets are the world's fastest information network. When tension rises, money moves — often hours or days before the first headline."

The Philosophy

Most geopolitical risk tools rely on expert opinions, prediction markets, or news sentiment. These are valuable — but they tell you what people think is happening.

The Global Stress Index takes a different approach: it watches what money is doing. When oil spikes, it means someone is pricing in supply disruption. When a country's ETF drops sharply, institutional investors are pulling capital. When gold and the VIX surge together, the market is bracing for impact.

We don't predict the future. We measure the present — through the lens of the world's most efficient information-processing system: the global financial markets.

The Methodology

Track 25 Market Assets

Commodities (oil, gold, wheat, gas, copper, uranium), country ETFs (Israel, China, Taiwan, Korea, Turkey, Brazil, S. Africa, Saudi Arabia, India), currencies (₽ ₺ ₪ ¥ ₩ R$), and fear indicators (VIX, DXY, defense stocks, treasuries).

Compute Z-Scores

For each asset, we calculate how many standard deviations the current price is from its 30-day rolling average. A z-score of +2 means the price is significantly above normal — a spike.

Map to 20 Hotspots

Each geographic hotspot (Israel, Iran, Ukraine, Taiwan, etc.) is connected to specific assets with calibrated weights. Israel's score is heavily influenced by the Israel ETF and shekel, while Ukraine's depends on wheat, gas, and the ruble.

Interpolate the Heatmap

Using Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), every point on the map receives a score based on its proximity to nearby hotspots. The result is a smooth, continuous heatmap where every pixel tells a story.

Limitations

The GSI is a signal, not a crystal ball. Market movements can reflect economic factors unrelated to geopolitical tension. Oil may spike due to OPEC decisions, not conflict. An ETF may drop on earnings data, not political instability. The index works best when multiple correlated signals move together — that's when the pattern becomes meaningful.

Built By

The Global Stress Index was created by Ethan H. — an independent project exploring the intersection of financial markets and geopolitical dynamics.

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