Last updated: February 15, 2026
By accessing and using ThreatScope ("the Service"), you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agree to be bound by these Terms of Service. If you do not agree with these terms, please do not use the Service.
ThreatScope is a geopolitical risk assessment tool that provides probabilistic forecasts of conflict escalation across global regions. The Service aggregates data from public prediction markets, event databases, and analytical models to generate risk assessments. ThreatScope is provided for informational and research purposes only.
The information provided by ThreatScope does not constitute professional advice of any kind, including but not limited to military, security, investment, legal, or policy advice. The risk assessments and forecasts are probabilistic estimates derived from publicly available data sources and mathematical models. They should not be used as the sole basis for any decision-making. Users should consult qualified professionals for decisions related to security, investment, or policy.
While ThreatScope strives to provide accurate and timely risk assessments, we make no warranties or guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or timeliness of any information provided. Geopolitical forecasting is inherently uncertain, and all models have limitations and blind spots. Past performance of our forecasting models does not guarantee future accuracy. Data sources may experience outages, delays, or inaccuracies beyond our control.
ThreatScope aggregates data from third-party sources including Metaculus, Polymarket, GDELT, ACLED, and other publicly available datasets. We do not control these data sources and are not responsible for their availability, accuracy, or content. Use of these data sources is subject to their respective terms of service and usage policies.
The ThreatScope name, logo, design, forecasting methodology, and proprietary algorithms are the intellectual property of ThreatScope. The specific model weights, scoring formulas, and ensemble combination methods are proprietary and confidential. You may not reverse-engineer, decompile, or attempt to extract the underlying algorithms or model parameters.
You agree not to use ThreatScope to: (a) engage in any activity that violates applicable laws or regulations; (b) manipulate or attempt to manipulate any prediction market or data source referenced by the Service; (c) scrape, data-mine, or systematically download content from the Service without prior written permission; (d) misrepresent ThreatScope outputs as official government, military, or intelligence assessments; (e) use the Service to facilitate or encourage violence, terrorism, or other harmful activities.
To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law, ThreatScope and its operators shall not be liable for any indirect, incidental, special, consequential, or punitive damages, or any loss of profits or revenues, whether incurred directly or indirectly, or any loss of data, use, goodwill, or other intangible losses, resulting from your use of the Service.
We reserve the right to modify these Terms of Service at any time. Changes will be effective immediately upon posting to the Service. Your continued use of ThreatScope after changes are posted constitutes your acceptance of the modified terms.
These Terms of Service shall be governed by and construed in accordance with applicable laws, without regard to conflict of law principles.